[
  {
    "id": "wrh-fomc-sept-2026-upper-bound-hike",
    "slug": "fomc-sept-2026-upper-bound-hike",
    "question": "At its 15–16 September 2026 meeting, will the FOMC raise the upper bound of the federal funds target range?",
    "short_label": "FOMC Sept 2026 — upper-bound hike?",
    "type": "binary",
    "class": "featured",
    "domain": "monetary-policy",
    "created_at": "2026-09-11T05:39:14Z",
    "close_at": "2026-09-14T22:00:00Z",
    "resolution_date": "2026-09-18",
    "status": "active",
    "resolution_criterion": "Resolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement for the 15–16 September 2026 meeting is HIGHER than the upper bound set by the immediately preceding FOMC decision (3.75% as of the 28–29 July 2026 decision); resolves NO if it is equal or lower. The bound is read from the official FOMC statements, not from the effective (market) rate. Resolution uses the version of the statements available on 18 September 2026 at 18:00 America/New_York. If the meeting is postponed or cancelled, or the comparison cannot be determined by that time, the question is VOID and kept in the register; any later corrections are preserved as distinct versions.",
    "resolution_source": "Official FOMC meeting statement, via the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (the specific statement URL is published at the meeting — not pre-invented).",
    "updates": [
      {
        "at": "2026-09-11T06:16:08Z",
        "distribution": {
          "type": "binary",
          "p_yes": 0.63
        },
        "rationale": "Forecast produced by the forecasting engine.",
        "source": "engine",
        "engine_run": "0103018a"
      }
    ],
    "demo": false
  },
  {
    "id": "wrh-eia-distillate-2026-09-25",
    "slug": "us-distillate-stocks-2026-09-25",
    "question": "What will U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks be for the week ending 25 September 2026?",
    "short_label": "US distillate stocks, wk 2026-09-25",
    "type": "continuous_numeric",
    "class": "featured",
    "domain": "markets",
    "created_at": "2026-09-16T16:02:09Z",
    "close_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
    "resolution_date": "2026-09-30",
    "status": "active",
    "resolution_criterion": "Resolves to U.S. Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil for the week ending 2026-09-25 as FIRST PUBLISHED by the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (series WDISTUS1), in million barrels (EIA reports thousand barrels; divide by 1000). First print governs; later EIA revisions do not change resolution. The full continuous distribution is scored (CRPS).",
    "resolution_source": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W",
    "updates": [
      {
        "at": "2026-09-16T16:02:09Z",
        "distribution": {
          "type": "continuous_numeric",
          "unit": "million barrels",
          "lower": 90.0,
          "upper": 118.0,
          "p_below": 0,
          "p_above": 0,
          "quantiles": [
            [
              0.05,
              92.13
            ],
            [
              0.25,
              100.65
            ],
            [
              0.5,
              102.0
            ],
            [
              0.75,
              103.35
            ],
            [
              0.95,
              115.07
            ]
          ]
        },
        "rationale": "Forecasting engine (WoAC-as-prior -> F1 -> F2 -> human HEI=NO_EDGE -> D*), 2 of 3 providers (reduced quorum), web-grounded on the EIA series and the Sep-2026 STEO draw view (inventories heading below 100 Mbbl by October). Median 102.0, central-50% [100.65, 103.35], central-90% [92.13, 115.07] million barrels."
      }
    ],
    "benchmark": {
      "name": "eia-persistence-last-level",
      "at": "2026-09-16T16:02:09Z",
      "distribution": {
        "type": "continuous_numeric",
        "unit": "million barrels",
        "lower": 106.2,
        "upper": 106.4,
        "p_below": 0,
        "p_above": 0,
        "quantiles": [
          [
            0.5,
            106.3
          ]
        ]
      },
      "reference_week": "2026-09-04",
      "vintage": "2026-09-10",
      "note": "Persistence: all mass at the last EIA distillate level available at cutoff (106.3 Mbbl)."
    },
    "outcome": null,
    "resolved_at": null,
    "source": "engine"
  }
]