Public forecasting ledger
Forecasts on the record.
A public experiment in probabilistic forecasting, calibration and epistemic discipline. Claims are stated with explicit probabilities and timestamps — before reality resolves them.
Stated in advance
Every forecast carries a probability, a resolution criterion and a publication timestamp. Nothing is scored after the fact.
Never rewritten
Updates create new states; the original forecast is preserved. Wrong forecasts stay on the record — that is the point.
Yours to audit
The full dataset is downloadable. Compute the Brier scores and calibration yourself — no need to trust the summary.
Current forecasts
The public record begins here. Active forecasts will appear on this page.
Sealed forecasts
A forecast can be committed without being revealed.
A cryptographic hash of the forecast is published immediately and timestamped; the forecast itself stays hidden until a scheduled reveal. Once revealed, anyone can verify it matches the earlier commitment.
Methodology
Judge the forecasts after the outcomes.
Probabilities, resolution criteria, scoring rules and calibration — the principles behind the record, without the proprietary internals.