Open data
Audit the record
The forecast record is published as plain machine-readable data. Download it and compute the Brier scores, calibration and anything else yourself — the summary pages have no information the raw data doesn't.
Downloads
| File | Contents | Format |
|---|---|---|
| forecasts.json | Full forecast ledger: typed distributions, update history, outcomes | JSON |
| cohorts.json | Ex-ante cohort registry (Core / Featured) and coverage membership | JSON |
| commitments.json | Public sealed-forecast commitments (hashes and reveals) | JSON |
CSV exports and a documented schema will be added as the record grows. The JSON is the canonical source.
Scoring, reproducibly
Forecasts are scored with proper scoring rules — a logarithmic score across all types, with Brier and CRPS as secondary diagnostics, and each forecast measured against an uninformative baseline. Every aggregate on the track record is derived from these files in your browser by the same open scoring code — so if your computation disagrees with the site's, the site is wrong. That is the intended failure mode.
Demonstration records, if present, carry a demo flag and are excluded from every real metric. They exist only to exercise the interface and must never be read as a historical prediction.