Independent check
Verify a sealed forecast
Paste a revealed forecast and its salt, and the published commitment hash. Your browser recomputes the SHA-256 fingerprint and tells you whether they match. Nothing is sent anywhere — the check runs locally.
The commitment scheme is SHA-256( salt_hex + "|" + forecast_text ) — the same computation used to seal the forecast. You can reproduce it in any SHA-256 tool and confirm the match independently.
Check when a forecast was published
Public forecasts are not sealed, so their timing rests on independent captures of the ledger by the Internet Archive. This site makes no request to the archive; you check it yourself:
- On the forecast's card, follow the Independently archived link, or pick an entry in /data/archives.json.
- Download the entry's raw_url (the id_ form returns the archived bytes unmodified) and compute its SHA-256, e.g. sha256sum forecasts.json or certutil -hashfile forecasts.json SHA256.
- It must equal the entry's sha256. Then open the file: the forecast must be there, with the same probability or distribution and at least as many updates as the card shows, and the capture time must precede the question's close.
A capture proves that the ledger held that content no later than the capture time, as attested by the archive. A capture made after a question closed is shown as such and is not evidence of timing.