Notes & essays
Blog
Commentary and thought on forecasting, markets and epistemics. Not part of the scored forecasting record.
- Core Macro begins, twelve days late
The first instance of the predeclared Core Macro cohort is published: Brent, the US 10-year yield, EUR/USD, gold and the next Fed decision. It was due on 1 October. What is in it, and how it will be judged. - First five resolutions: one benchmark beaten out of four
Five forecasts have resolved. Against the uninformative baseline the record is slightly positive; against the ex-ante benchmarks it is one win in four. What the misses have in common.